Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A7
0xa7a3…7846
weather · 492 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$21 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10 · open −$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses236 / 244
Open positions12
Markets (closed)480 / 492
History coverage77d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 12 History 480 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$7
14 days−$7
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 88¢ 95¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 85¢ 82¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 13? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? No 83¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +500%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $6 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +381%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $3 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $1 $0 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 10 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 9? Jun 10 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 10 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 8? Jun 09 $2 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on June 8? Jun 09 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 8? Jun 09 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 7? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$4 +356%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$15 +1398%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 6? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 6? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 6? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 6? Jun 07 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 06 $4 +$2 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 06 $1 +$15 +1367%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 44¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL Yes 57¢ $8 9h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? BUY No 92¢ $5 32h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 81¢ $2 32h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 33h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 33h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11? BUY No 86¢ $2 41h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 11? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 45h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 86¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 10? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 10? BUY No 97¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 10? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 10? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? BUY No 87¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 10? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +26.8% +14.7% 35% 25% -3.2%
≤30d 210 +26.2% +14.2% 49% 36% +4.1%
≤90d 480 +6.6% -3.5% 49% 37% -11.7%
all 480 +6.6% -3.5% 49% 37% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 37% -11.7%
10% -12.8% 20% -20.2%
15% -21.2% 15% -27.9%
20% -28.9% 12% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.74 · official $5.75 (match) · 1293 history records