Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:35:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
A7 0xa7a5…cfde other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$46 (+2%) realized +$73 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%17W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$487now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$64
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$192
sports 35% +$214
crypto 11% −$7
world 1% −$17
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +38.2% +25.1% 46% 43% -13.8%
≤30d 33 +28.7% +16.5% 45% 42% -11.5%
≤90d 33 +28.7% +16.5% 45% 42% -11.5%
all 35 +34.7% +21.9% 49% 46% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.9% 46% -8.7%
10% +10.2% 46% -17.4%
15% -0.5% 37% -25.4%
20% -10.2% 29% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +73% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$38 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$487
Realized+$73
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses17 / 18
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)35 / 40
History coverage150d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET Jun 20 $53 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET Jun 20 $22 −$20 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET Jun 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $53 +$35 +67%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $53 +$66 +125%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 +$10 +93%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 +$22 +205%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $52 +$5 +10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $52 +$22 +42%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 +$162 +1514%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $105 +$24 +22%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $105 +$24 +22%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $53 +$125 +236%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $105 +$49 +46%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $19 +$11 +58%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $53 +$74 +140%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Charles Oliveira win by KO or TKO? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$8 +38%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $10 +$21 +212%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $48 +$26 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $52 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $105 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $105 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $105 5h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $53 34h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $106 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $53 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $53 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $52 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $11 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $33 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $58 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $52 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $52 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $17 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $105 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $105 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $53 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $53 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $52 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $53 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $487.41 · official $487.41 (match) · 81 history records