Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:15:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7a6…8117 sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4,073 (+31%) realized +$3,888 · open +$185
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%8W / 16L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$533per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$385now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days−$218
14 days+$227
30 days−$623
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$3,878
sports 38% +$161
politics 11% +$8,558
world 4% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -24.1% -31.3% 44% 33% -16.0%
≤30d 13 -31.3% -37.9% 38% 31% -22.6%
≤90d 16 -20.2% -27.8% 38% 31% -13.0%
all 24 -10.2% -18.8% 33% 29% +19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 29% +19.2%
10% -26.5% 29% +7.8%
15% -33.6% 29% -2.6%
20% -40.1% 29% -12.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$750) neutral
Persistence
early +5% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,506 vs −$493 · ×3.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$385
Realized+$3,888
Unrealized+$185
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses8 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage203d
Avg bet$533
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $385 +$185 (+92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 +$98 +97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $304 +$205 +67%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $254 −$250 -99%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,002 +$51 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $508 +$579 +114%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $507 −$500 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $406 +$445 +109%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $765 −$750 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? May 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $51 −$50 -97%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $377 +$1,067 +283%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 10 $255 −$250 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $400 −$400 -100%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 01 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 02 $3,000 −$2,999 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-23? Dec 23 $400 −$400 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Dec 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Dec 20 $1,000 +$1,041 +104%
Will Alabama win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Dec 18 $237 −$237 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Dec 13 $800 −$800 -100%
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect Dec 09 $1,490 +$8,558 +574%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $304 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 51¢ $254 20h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $1,002 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $508 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $507 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $203 6d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 65¢ $101 6d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 56¢ $101 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $406 8d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $765 22d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 28d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes $51 28d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves SELL Timberwolves 98¢ $898 41d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves SELL Timberwolves 98¢ $546 41d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 25¢ $377 41d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) BUY Arsenal FC 35¢ $255 42d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 40¢ $400 78d
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? BUY Yes 13¢ $500 112d
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY Yes $500 170d
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY Yes $1,000 171d
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY Yes $200 171d
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY Yes $300 171d
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY Yes $400 171d
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY Yes $300 171d
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY Yes $300 171d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $400 180d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) BUY Arsenal FC 37¢ $300 183d
Alabama vs. Oklahoma BUY Alabama 49¢ $1,000 184d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $385.00 · official $385.00 (match) · 50 history records