Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:19:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7a7…3f7d politics 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$354per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$6
other 37% −$4
economics 12% −$2
culture 7% −$1
sports 2% $0
world 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 28 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$668) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage88d
Avg bet$354
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 29 $43 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 29 $1,150 −$2 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 29 $1,192 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $1,130 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $76 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $30 $0 -0%
Chirayu Rana divorced? May 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $727 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Party (MP) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parli May 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 17 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $32 $0 -1%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $648 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $668 $0 +0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $79 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $146 $0 -0%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y Apr 06 $134 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $21 $0 -0%
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 03 $157 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? Apr 03 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $43 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,148 1h
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $18 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,110 1h
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $13 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,190 1h
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $12 2h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 2h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,162 2h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $839 2h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 2h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $289 2h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,130 2h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $76 39d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $64 39d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 39d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 40d
Chirayu Rana divorced? SELL No 98¢ $11 40d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 40d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 40d
Chirayu Rana divorced? SELL No 98¢ $11 40d
Chirayu Rana divorced? BUY No 98¢ $21 40d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 42d
Will the Green Party (MP) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parli SELL No 99¢ $24 42d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 42d
Will the Green Party (MP) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parli SELL No 100¢ $15 42d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 42d
Will the Green Party (MP) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parli BUY No 100¢ $40 42d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $56 43d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $692 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records