Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:37:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7ab…fe3b sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$110 (-29%) realized −$109 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -22.9% -30.2% 42% 33% -43.3%
≤30d 12 -22.9% -30.2% 42% 33% -43.3%
≤90d 12 -22.9% -30.2% 42% 33% -43.3%
all 12 -22.9% -30.2% 42% 33% -43.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.2% 33% -43.3%
10% -36.9% 33% -48.7%
15% -43.0% 33% -53.7%
20% -48.6% 33% -58.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$28 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$109
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage7d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 58¢ 57¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets 48¢ 48¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 47¢ 46¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $41 +$36 +90%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $29 +$33 +114%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $7 +$6 +97%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $7 +$9 +124%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $23 $0 +2%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $122 −$122 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $35 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 47¢ $20 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 48¢ $22 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $9 43h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $10 44h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $41 45h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $11 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 46¢ $13 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 46¢ $16 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $16 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $7 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $7 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 57¢ $20 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $5 5d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 57¢ $14 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 44¢ $7 6d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $10 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $25 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $42 7d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 53¢ $55 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.02 · official $75.02 (match) · 32 history records