Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7b0…efa4 politics 131 markets active 3d ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$10
politics 44% −$10
sports 5% −$19
crypto 2% −$1
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 122 -3.0% -12.3% 5% 1% -9.8%
all 130 -1.8% -11.2% 8% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 4% -9.7%
10% -19.7% 3% -18.3%
15% -27.5% 3% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×8.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 120
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage109d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $143 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $348 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $145 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $35 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $26 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $311 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $256 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $114 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $138 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $130 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $128 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $131 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $157 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $134 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $147 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 15 $130 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $150 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $160 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $138 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $143 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 10 $114 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $125 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $390 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $115 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $281 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $116 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $136 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 04 $321 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $274 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $230 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $131 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 02 $124 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $277 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $123 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $132 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $259 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $118 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $268 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $257 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $118 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $135 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $141 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $126 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 2d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 2d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 3d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 8d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 9d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 9d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 9d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 9d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 9d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 10d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 10d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 11d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $26 11d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $26 11d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 16d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 18d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 18d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 18d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $119 18d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $119 22d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $114 22d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $114 22d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $138 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.99 · official $23.99 (match) · 374 history records