Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:11:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A7 0xa7b3…1fcb crypto 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$698 (-22%) realized −$790 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate24%33W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$125
14 days−$375
30 days−$852
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$570
other 25% +$2
sports 21% −$268
world 2% +$35
politics 1% −$9
finance 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-42.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -34.1% -40.3% 24% 17% -31.0%
≤30d 84 -37.9% -43.8% 21% 18% -49.6%
≤90d 135 -36.2% -42.3% 24% 21% -32.7%
all 135 -36.2% -42.3% 24% 21% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.3% 21% -32.7%
10% -47.8% 20% -39.2%
15% -52.8% 19% -45.0%
20% -57.5% 18% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$17 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$790
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses33 / 102
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)135 / 138
History coverage82d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 22¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $35 +$2 +5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$5 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$11 -68%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$9 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $10 $0 -3%
Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $97 −$7 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $53 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$35 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$24 +566%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 06 $138 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 06 $17 +$59 +348%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 06 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 06 $43 +$12 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $5 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $3 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 46h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 46h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $17 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $3 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $20 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $6 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.10 · official $20.10 (match) · 378 history records