Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A7 0xa7b4…a4f5 sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$450 (+32%) realized +$450 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$470per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$458
other 21% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +29.3% +17.0% 100% 67% +21.9%
≤30d 3 +29.3% +17.0% 100% 67% +21.9%
≤90d 3 +29.3% +17.0% 100% 67% +21.9%
all 3 +29.3% +17.0% 100% 67% +21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.0% 67% +21.9%
10% +5.8% 33% +10.3%
15% -4.4% 33% -0.4%
20% -13.8% 33% -10.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$163 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$450
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$470
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $501 +$48 +10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $301 +$32 +11%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 22 $607 +$410 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL Egypt 100¢ $550 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 91¢ $501 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $304 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $304 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $301 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records