Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:48:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7b5…fa78 other 183 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,205 (+5%) realized +$5,770 · open −$3,565
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate43%56W / 73L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day34.5pace
Fees−$167est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$38,206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 94d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$1,221
other 29% +$691
sports 15% −$199
world 6% −$361
tech 4% −$566
crypto 3% +$59
finance 0% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -24.7% -31.8% 45% 36% -0.7%
≤30d 53 -10.0% -18.6% 49% 32% +9.9%
≤90d 128 -20.2% -27.8% 43% 30% -5.4%
all 129 -5.1% -14.2% 43% 30% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 30% -1.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 24% -10.5%
15% -29.9% 21% -19.1%
20% -36.7% 17% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
14.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$75 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$38,206
Realized+$5,770
Unrealized−$3,565
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses56 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$167
Open positions64
Markets (closed)129 / 183
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$227
Trades / day34.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 64 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 21¢ $8,485 $7,419 −$1,065 (-13%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $4,271 $5,866 +$1,595 (+37%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $4,132 $4,509 +$377 (+9%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3,690 $2,951 −$739 (-20%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3,012 $1,530 −$1,482 (-49%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1,327 $1,488 +$161 (+12%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $664 $1,085 +$421 (+63%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $525 $963 +$438 (+83%)
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,057 $953 −$104 (-10%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1,033 $933 −$100 (-10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $538 $906 +$367 (+68%)
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $643 $599 −$43 (-7%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $623 $562 −$60 (-10%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 99¢ $325 $495 +$170 (+52%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $321 $439 +$118 (+37%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $494 $437 −$57 (-12%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 9¢ $231 $387 +$156 (+67%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 62¢ 16¢ $1,426 $356 −$1,069 (-75%)
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $782 $351 −$431 (-55%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $424 $341 −$83 (-20%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $400 $328 −$72 (-18%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $347 $324 −$23 (-7%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $343 $285 −$58 (-17%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $349 $284 −$65 (-19%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $196 $282 +$86 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 26 $160 −$160 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 26 $155 −$155 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Jun 26 $25 +$4 +17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $789 +$11 +2%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $134 +$66 +49%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $240 +$160 +67%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $790 +$310 +39%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $68 +$207 +306%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $24 −$24 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $142 +$58 +40%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $70 −$26 -37%
Will Tom Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Michael Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $6 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $177 +$23 +13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $129 +$71 +55%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $166 +$34 +21%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $213 −$212 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $90 −$90 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 Jun 17 $477 −$17 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $134 +$76 +57%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $105 −$104 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $49 +$71 +146%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $459 −$254 -55%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $586 +$1,285 +219%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Spain win on 2026-0 Jun 14 $26 −$12 -48%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $104 +$84 +81%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $180 +$820 +456%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $108 +$192 +177%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $67 +$5 +7%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $1,046 +$54 +5%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $188 +$13 +7%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $59 +$33 +55%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? Jun 01 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $487 +$11 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 88¢ $243 2h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 88¢ $197 2h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 5¢ $23 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 20h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: BUY 85¢ $25 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 99¢ $495 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 21h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 67¢ $134 21h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $240 22h
Will Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 29h
Will Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 31h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 32h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 34h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 2d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 20¢ $154 2d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 2d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 20¢ $247 2d
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 6¢ $60 2d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $125 2d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $299 2d
Will Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $66 2d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $229 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $41 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $34 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 3d
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals SELL Yes 30¢ $59 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38,206.48 · official $38,417.71 (match) · 3500 history records