Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:44:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A7 0xa7b5…a079 crypto 310 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$698 (+1%) realized +$694 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate83%254W / 52L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$2,070now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$150
14 days+$302
30 days+$502
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$461
world 10% +$283
other 10% −$229
tech 7% +$101
sports 1% +$10
finance 0% −$2
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -3.1% -12.3% 91% 12% -8.3%
≤30d 113 -2.7% -11.9% 83% 11% -8.4%
≤90d 208 -5.5% -14.5% 81% 10% -8.4%
all 306 -5.0% -14.1% 83% 10% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 10% -8.8%
10% -22.3% 7% -17.5%
15% -29.8% 5% -25.5%
20% -36.7% 4% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$2,070
Realized+$694
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses254 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)306 / 310
History coverage114d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 306 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $1,200 $1,197 −$3 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $476 $479 +$2 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $388 $393 +$5 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4 +$1 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $11 +$3 +27%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 24? Jun 24 $1,829 +$25 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $541 +$9 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,455 +$30 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $681 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,074 +$23 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? Jun 22 $541 +$16 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,026 +$2 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $6 +$4 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$2 -56%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $6.00-$7.00 on the final day of trading Jun 18 $90 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.25 Week of June 15 Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $144 Week of June 15 Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $180 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $2.75 Week of June 15 Jun 18 $114 $0 +0%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $138 Week of June 15 Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.75 Week of June 1 Jun 18 $657 +$8 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 15 Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $141 Week of June 15 Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $92.50 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $213 +$2 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of June 15 Jun 18 $83 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.00 Week of June 1 Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $175 Week of June 15 2026 Jun 18 $230 +$3 +2%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $212 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $145 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $147.50 Week of June 15 20 Jun 18 $110 $0 +0%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $260 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,499 +$16 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -75%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +73%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,498 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +319%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,811 +$15 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $224 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +55%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 15 $2,022 +$14 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $19 −$7 -35%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,146 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? Jun 14 $871 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $2,015 +$6 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,200 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $8 9h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 11h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 11h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $351 11h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 13h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $88 13h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $93 13h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 14h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 15h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 24? BUY Yes 98¢ $842 18h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $11 18h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $116 18h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $75 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 24? BUY Yes 98¢ $459 18h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 24? BUY Yes 98¢ $34 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $484 22h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 22h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 47h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $235 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $935 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $225 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $385 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $296 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,070.04 · official $2,070.04 (match) · 883 history records