Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7b7…8d79 sports 33 markets active 4h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$100 (-15%) realized −$107 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%7W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days−$101
14 days−$101
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$96
sports 47% +$32
crypto 5% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +19.5% +8.1% 25% 25% -25.8%
≤30d 28 +19.5% +8.1% 25% 25% -25.8%
≤90d 28 +19.5% +8.1% 25% 25% -25.8%
all 28 +19.5% +8.1% 25% 25% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.1% 25% -25.8%
10% -2.2% 21% -32.9%
15% -11.7% 21% -39.3%
20% -20.3% 21% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$18 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses7 / 21
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)28 / 33
History coverage14d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 56¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+23%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 38¢ $15 $24 +$9 (+60%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 22¢ 16¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-30%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 +$38 +250%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$57 +1116%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $71 +$16 +22%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $30 −$29 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $20 +$27 +134%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $17 −$12 -70%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -99%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $10 +$40 +388%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$67 +649%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $57 −$55 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $9 4h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 4h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 4h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $1 21h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 26h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 26h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $20 43h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $81 2d
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over $4 3d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 11¢ $5 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $10 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $26 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $41 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $48 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $25 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.23 · official $112.24 (match) · 51 history records