Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:15:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7bb…32a2 world 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$23 (-1%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%19W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$2
other 19% $0
sports 13% −$14
politics 10% +$1
economics 3% $0
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 22 -0.3% -9.8% 32% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 55 -1.7% -11.1% 33% 0% -9.7%
all 57 -1.9% -11.3% 33% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 2% -10.0%
10% -19.8% 2% -18.6%
15% -27.5% 2% -26.5%
20% -34.6% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses19 / 38
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)57 / 61
History coverage530d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $108 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $118 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $73 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $117 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $41 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $37 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $165 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $119 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $73 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $176 +$1 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $69 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $73 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $41 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $39 +$1 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $27 −$1 -3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $37 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $36 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $41 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $56 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $121 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $78 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $83 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $7 $0 -2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $6 $0 +2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $68 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $63 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $4 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 08 $79 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 08 $5 $0 +3%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 06 $1 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $43 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $99 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $35 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 87¢ $35 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $37 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $41 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $41 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $9 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $27 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $36 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 76¢ $36 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $36 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $40 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $40 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $7 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $30 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $16 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $8 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $10 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $2 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 47¢ $6 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.37 · official $36.15 (match) · 291 history records