Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:18:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7bb…0fde sports 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%12W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$51
other 23% −$5
politics 22% −$2
economics 7% +$1
world 6% −$1
crypto 5% −$3
tech 4% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 151 -1.0% -10.4% 8% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -10.3%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses12 / 139
Open positions1
Markets (closed)151 / 152
History coverage168d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $184 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $79 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)? Feb 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 18 $62 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 18 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 18 $149 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 18 $142 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 18 $122 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $88 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 18 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 18 $83 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 17 $82 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 17 $141 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 17 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 17 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 17 $67 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 17 $85 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 15 $89 −$1 -1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 15 $179 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 15 $86 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Feb 15 $92 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Feb 15 $88 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 15 $136 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 15 $126 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $42 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $42 12d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $42 12d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $30 24d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 24d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $37 36d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $37 36d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $38 44d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $39 44d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $44 130d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $44 130d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $35 130d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $35 130d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $40 130d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $40 130d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $38 130d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $38 130d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 95¢ $1 130d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $25 130d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 95¢ $9 130d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $25 130d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 95¢ $31 130d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 95¢ $41 130d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $38 130d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $38 130d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $42 130d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $42 130d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL No 97¢ $43 130d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? BUY No 98¢ $43 130d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $14 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.30 · official $42.30 (match) · 585 history records