Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:14:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7be…ef59 politics 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,953 (-1%) realized −$1,952 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate18%25W / 116L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,531per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$12
14 days−$87
30 days−$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$106
other 42% −$1,829
sports 12% −$45
world 2% −$8
tech 1% −$2
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
finance 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 32 -0.7% -10.2% 9% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 105 -8.8% -17.5% 9% 5% -10.9%
all 141 +0.6% -9.0% 18% 13% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 13% -10.4%
10% -17.7% 13% -18.9%
15% -25.6% 11% -26.8%
20% -32.9% 8% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,618) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$26 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$1,168
Realized−$1,952
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses25 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)141 / 143
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,531
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $807 $807 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $361 $361 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $782 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,052 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $5,583 −$6 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,053 −$2 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 14 $1,058 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $4,086 −$6 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $2,787 −$4 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,306 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,323 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,433 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $8,378 −$9 -0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $77 +$35 +46%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,149 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,236 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,736 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 05 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $7,435 −$8 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,998 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $544 +$1 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $4,453 −$5 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $3,239 −$4 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,772 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,153 −$3 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $1,280 −$2 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 25 $77 −$77 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $57 +$77 +134%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,235 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $1,241 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,298 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,201 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? May 19 $573 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $1,522 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $2,598 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $5,476 −$7 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,352 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 08 $1,314 −$2 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $3,342 −$4 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,246 −$3 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 06 $1,089 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $8,721 −$9 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $1,378 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $1,579 −$2 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $1,492 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,391 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $1,422 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $1,379 −$2 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $1,372 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 28 $1,362 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $807 53m
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $781 22h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $782 26h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,050 2d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,052 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,056 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,057 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,052 3d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,053 3d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $1,056 3d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $1,058 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $361 5d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,410 7d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,412 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,417 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,419 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,304 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,306 8d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,321 8d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,323 8d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,431 8d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,433 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,423 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,424 9d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,170 10d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,172 10d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,147 11d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,149 11d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,074 11d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,076 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,167.68 · official $1,167.68 (match) · 493 history records