Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:14:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7bf…e441 crypto 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,797 (-4%) realized −$8,663 · open +$1,866
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate77%63W / 19L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,759per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$5,908now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days−$14,430
14 days−$13,366
30 days−$8,814
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$8,422
crypto 39% +$1,981
politics 2% +$266
other 1% −$786
economics 0% +$28
tech 0% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -26.4% -33.4% 44% 33% -63.3%
≤30d 21 -6.3% -15.2% 71% 48% -22.3%
≤90d 62 -9.8% -18.4% 79% 26% -14.6%
all 82 -2.3% -11.6% 77% 28% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 28% -14.9%
10% -20.0% 13% -23.0%
15% -27.8% 9% -30.5%
20% -34.8% 7% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$2,082) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$901 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$5,908
Realized−$8,663
Unrealized+$1,866
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses63 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)82 / 86
History coverage237d
Avg bet$1,759
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 59¢ 97¢ $2,235 $3,659 +$1,424 (+64%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 78¢ 90¢ $947 $1,088 +$141 (+15%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 46¢ 64¢ $700 $981 +$281 (+40%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 27¢ 30¢ $160 $181 +$21 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 21 $422 +$48 +12%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 19 $1,000 +$101 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 18 $2,516 −$18 -1%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 18 $125 +$35 +28%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $700 +$187 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $6,314 −$3,069 -49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $11,864 −$10,705 -90%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,254 −$941 -75%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $13,170 +$1,062 +8%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $197 −$195 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $680 +$363 +53%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $7,800 +$1,787 +23%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 30 $1,672 +$264 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 28 $4,942 +$1,036 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $3,083 +$159 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 26 $1,114 +$117 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 26 $10 +$1 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $2,010 +$844 +42%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $3,548 +$176 +5%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $623 −$618 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17? May 17 $72 +$40 +56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16? May 16 $2,000 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? May 16 $200 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? May 15 $1,110 +$24 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? May 15 $1,001 +$17 +2%
Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $201 +$33 +16%
Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $201 +$38 +19%
Will Trump say "Forbidden City" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1,004 +$105 +10%
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $611 +$122 +20%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1,098 +$44 +4%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $219 −$198 -90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $490 +$12 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14? May 14 $800 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14? May 14 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13? May 13 $2,082 +$22 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? May 13 $3,001 +$14 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12? May 12 $1,442 +$85 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $4,887 +$123 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 11 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10? May 10 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 09 $2,176 +$24 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $3,513 +$110 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 08 $1,195 +$17 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? May 07 $1,800 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7? May 07 $405 +$83 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? May 06 $51 +$12 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6? May 06 $2,001 +$17 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 27¢ $165 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 95¢ $470 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 63¢ $103 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $1,000 28h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 100¢ $1,101 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 37¢ $11 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $175 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 91¢ $1,000 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $39 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 96¢ $1,050 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $40 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 44¢ $164 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 44¢ $56 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $90 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $400 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 89¢ $883 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $260 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 55¢ $96 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 57¢ $100 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 14¢ $0 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 14¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 14¢ $8 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 14¢ $37 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 14¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 14¢ $22 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 58¢ $200 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 73¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,908.10 · official $5,908.10 (match) · 512 history records