Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:51:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7c0…dada sports 493 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$2,143 (+2%) realized −$1,874 · open −$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%216W / 274L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day93.6pace
Fees−$2,724est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$4,069
14 days−$4,865
30 days−$6,727
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$911
other 7% −$463
crypto 3% −$561
world 0% −$5
politics 0% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -20.8% -28.4% 42% 34% -24.1%
≤30d 417 -5.1% -14.2% 42% 37% -14.5%
≤90d 490 +0.6% -9.0% 44% 39% -10.5%
all 490 +0.6% -9.0% 44% 39% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 39% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 34% -19.1%
15% -25.7% 30% -26.9%
20% -33.0% 23% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$190 vs −$157 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized−$1,874
Unrealized−$105
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses216 / 274
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$2,724
Open positions3
Markets (closed)490 / 493
History coverage35d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day93.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 490 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $112 $114 +$2 (+2%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $13 $4 −$9 (-68%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 37¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 25¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 23¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce Martin Landaluce 59¢ 0¢ $296 $0 −$296 (-100%)
Collignon vs. Shelton: Match O/U 38.5 Over 63¢ 0¢ $147 $0 −$147 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Marta Kostyuk 11¢ 0¢ $112 $0 −$112 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Nemiga (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Finals Playoffs Nemiga 9¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoffs AM Gaming 45¢ 0¢ $171 $0 −$171 (-100%)
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 52¢ 0¢ $329 $0 −$329 (-100%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? No 21¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Nys/Roger-Vasselin Nys/Roger-Vasselin 28¢ 0¢ $230 $0 −$230 (-100%)
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 0.5 Under 11¢ 0¢ $91 $0 −$91 (-100%)
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Karim Bennani 28¢ 0¢ $196 $0 −$196 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 M80 38¢ 0¢ $272 $0 −$272 (-100%)
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries Indiana Fever 47¢ 0¢ $347 $0 −$347 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs 3DMAX 39¢ 0¢ $316 $0 −$316 (-100%)
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Tallon Griekspoor 26¢ 0¢ $424 $0 −$424 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 G2 36¢ 0¢ $492 $0 −$492 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 M80 3¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty Phoenix Mercury 39¢ 0¢ $558 $0 −$558 (-100%)
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Zizou Bergs 57¢ 0¢ $806 $0 −$806 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 64¢ 0¢ $531 $0 −$531 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 +$119 +78%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $26 −$16 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $76 +$11 +15%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $110 −$60 -55%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $45 −$44 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $170 +$65 +38%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $60 −$59 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $210 −$49 -23%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $89 +$110 +124%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $241 −$237 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $181 −$28 -15%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $144 +$57 +40%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $159 +$85 +54%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $21 −$11 -53%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $20 −$7 -37%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $46 +$44 +96%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $90 −$43 -48%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $42 −$41 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $69 +$132 +191%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $178 −$102 -58%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $200 −$18 -9%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $444 +$31 +7%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $139 −$137 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $251 −$250 -100%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $431 −$424 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $120 −$19 -16%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $334 −$329 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $31 +$3 +10%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $352 +$327 +93%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $327 −$125 -38%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 10 $276 −$48 -18%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $112 −$56 -50%
Libema Open (Doubles): Arribage/Olivetti vs Borges/Polmans Jun 10 $179 +$208 +116%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $352 −$26 -8%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $300 +$28 +10%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $816 −$806 -99%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $723 −$55 -8%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $200 +$167 +84%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $185 −$89 -48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1,025 −$151 -15%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 09 $1,208 −$1,189 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $1,287 −$1,035 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $404 +$11 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $343 −$150 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 09 $159 +$62 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 09 $259 +$97 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $369 +$34 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 09 $73 −$70 -96%
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 09 $200 −$196 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $884 +$845 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $114 33m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $94 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $32 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 14¢ $4 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 14¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 34¢ $26 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $176 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 53¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $50 4h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 18¢ $50 5h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 38¢ $21 6h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 38¢ $89 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 28¢ $19 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 20¢ $25 6h
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt SELL Mattia Bellucci 97¢ $182 7h
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt SELL Mattia Bellucci 85¢ $53 7h
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Mattia Bellucci 64¢ $5 7h
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Mattia Bellucci 64¢ $25 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.94 · official $117.98 (match) · 3500 history records