Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A7 0xa7c2…73bf sports 631 markets active 0h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,950 (+2%) realized +$6,350 · open −$400
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate63%373W / 223L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$499per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$1,876est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$3,495now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$598
7 days−$2,537
14 days−$9,084
30 days−$12,054
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$12,911
other 39% +$13,567
world 6% +$2,898
crypto 3% −$188
tech 0% +$224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 154 -8.9% -17.6% 53% 47% -16.9%
≤30d 264 -10.4% -18.9% 57% 50% -20.6%
≤90d 520 -2.9% -12.1% 62% 55% -8.8%
all 596 -2.5% -11.8% 63% 55% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 55% -7.9%
10% -20.3% 44% -16.7%
15% ← realistic here -28.0% 28% -24.7%
20% -35.0% 19% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$235 vs −$374 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$3,495
Realized+$6,350
Unrealized−$400
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses373 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$1,876
Open positions35
Markets (closed)596 / 631
History coverage109d
Avg bet$499
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 596 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 57¢ $478 $436 −$42 (-9%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 100¢ $82 $200 +$118 (+144%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 19¢ 38¢ $95 $192 +$97 (+103%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 54¢ $177 $139 −$38 (-21%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 86¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 60¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 76¢ $104 $109 +$5 (+5%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 59¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Argentina be the highest-scoring team in Group J during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 78¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $101 $108 +$7 (+7%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 74¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 72¢ 68¢ $101 $95 −$6 (-6%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $95 $94 −$2 (-2%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 72¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 62¢ $98 $91 −$7 (-8%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 68¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 53¢ 12¢ $370 $88 −$282 (-76%)
Will England be the highest-scoring team in Group L during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 68¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 142 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $419 −$120 -29%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $70 +$33 +47%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $428 +$162 +38%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $54 +$46 +86%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $32 +$68 +216%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $109 +$91 +83%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $143 +$157 +109%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $631 +$279 +44%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 +$49 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 +$2 +10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $99 +$101 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$33 +32%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $85 +$115 +134%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $98 +$302 +307%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $526 +$128 +24%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $179 +$121 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 +$98 +65%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $101 +$23 +22%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $71 −$70 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $56 −$55 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $59 −$58 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $62 −$61 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $78 −$76 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $69 −$68 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $85 +$114 +134%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,022 +$507 +25%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $80 −$79 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $77 −$71 -93%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $49 +$26 +53%
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $101 +$4 +4%
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $174 +$4 +2%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $202 +$8 +4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $61 +$38 +63%
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $134 −$6 -5%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $420 −$292 -70%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $316 −$238 -75%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $102 −$92 -90%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $203 −$80 -39%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $150 −$146 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $311 +$144 +46%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $326 +$198 +61%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $460 +$40 +9%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $52 +$48 +93%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $65 +$35 +55%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $55 +$45 +83%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 16 $47 +$53 +114%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $419 −$370 -88%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $118 +$281 +237%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 45¢ $248 1m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 52¢ $51 5m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 7m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 42m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 42m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 42m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 42m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 42m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 42m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 43m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 43m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 44m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 44m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 44m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 44m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 44m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 44m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 44m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 44m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 37¢ $38 45m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 45m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 45m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $131 47m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 30¢ $103 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $69 2h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $67 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $110 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $11 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $107 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $83 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,494.97 · official $3,521.96 (match) · 2604 history records