Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:36:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A7 0xa7c6…4314 other 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,831 (+7%) realized +$1,433 · open +$398
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate41%21W / 30L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$476per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$698now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,017
7 days−$344
14 days−$135
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$2,156
sports 25% +$1,616
crypto 4% +$713
world 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -26.2% -33.2% 39% 29% -6.5%
≤30d 42 -22.4% -29.8% 43% 33% -5.7%
≤90d 51 -18.5% -26.3% 41% 33% -6.1%
all 51 -18.5% -26.3% 41% 33% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 33% -6.1%
10% -33.3% 33% -15.1%
15% -39.8% 33% -23.3%
20% -45.7% 27% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$622) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$293 vs −$213 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$698
Realized+$1,433
Unrealized+$398
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses21 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage37d
Avg bet$476
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 46¢ $300 $698 +$398 (+132%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $965 −$620 -64%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,020 −$1,231 -61%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,013 +$727 +72%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $205 −$201 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,013 +$710 +70%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $511 −$311 -61%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $205 −$22 -11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,451 +$176 +7%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $80 −$44 -55%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2,044 +$879 +43%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $609 −$600 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $233 +$164 +70%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,134 +$1,015 +90%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,421 −$1,070 -44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,022 +$1,152 +57%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $510 −$480 -94%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $663 +$51 +8%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $296 −$8 -3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $336 −$11 -3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $418 −$286 -69%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $622 +$347 +56%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,582 −$941 -60%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 −$10 -86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $50 +$39 +79%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $32 −$29 -92%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,500 +$81 +5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $69 −$68 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $999 +$568 +57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $106 +$48 +45%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $92 +$117 +128%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 23 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 23 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 23 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 23 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -96%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $10 +$3 +28%
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs Forsaken (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season May 19 $9 +$11 +122%
LoL: SU Esports vs BoostGate Esports (BO5) - TCL Playoffs May 19 $9 −$6 -64%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 19 $7 +$13 +185%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO3) - Esports Worl May 19 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Kor May 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 15¢ $345 5m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 52¢ $659 17m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 27¢ $788 23m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 40m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $307 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $2,020 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $506 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $506 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,722 21h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 21h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $184 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 15¢ $183 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 23h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $409 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,052 24h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,001 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 90¢ $1,068 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,005 25h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $33 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 82¢ $294 26h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $223 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $214 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $697.50 · official $667.50 · 133 history records