Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:19:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A7 0xa7c8…bc64 other 45 markets active 3h ago coverage 425d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,384 (-9%) realized −$1,348 · open −$36
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%20W / 18L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$333per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$51
14 days+$51
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$572
crypto 25% +$195
world 18% −$219
sports 11% −$983
politics 9% −$35
weather 7% +$232
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +10.0% -0.5% 60% 40% -0.5%
≤30d 5 +10.0% -0.5% 60% 40% -0.5%
≤90d 5 +10.0% -0.5% 60% 40% -0.5%
all 38 -11.8% -20.2% 53% 42% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 42% -17.9%
10% -27.8% 29% -25.8%
15% -34.8% 11% -32.9%
20% -41.2% 5% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$173 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

425d coverage
Net worth$402
Realized−$1,348
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses20 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)38 / 45
History coverage425d
Avg bet$333
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $174 $182 +$8 (+5%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $95 $88 −$7 (-7%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $12 −$2 (-17%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $12 −$2 (-17%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $19 $9 −$9 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $101 −$31 -30%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $102 −$20 -20%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $102 +$78 +77%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $101 +$10 +10%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $1,090 −$1,090 -100%
Maduro out by December 31, 2026? Jan 03 $186 −$186 -100%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31? Jan 03 $200 −$14 -7%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? Jan 03 $367 +$116 +32%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Jan 01 $300 +$107 +36%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? Dec 31 $200 −$199 -99%
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by November 30? Dec 01 $288 +$255 +89%
Warriors vs. Bucks Oct 30 $200 −$200 -100%
Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31? Oct 30 $200 +$22 +11%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31? Oct 28 $200 +$87 +44%
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 31? Oct 21 $200 −$200 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by October 31? Oct 21 $298 +$91 +31%
Will Russia capture Yampil' by October 31? Oct 19 $200 +$11 +6%
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8? Oct 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 15? Oct 09 $200 +$65 +33%
Will the next government funding bill be a clean CR? Oct 09 $100 +$16 +16%
Israel strike on Yemen by October 15? Oct 07 $909 −$92 -10%
D4vd arrested by September 30? Oct 01 $737 +$217 +30%
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 29 ET? Sep 29 $9 −$4 -44%
Will Israel strike Yemen on October 1 ET? Sep 29 $9 −$3 -38%
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 30 ET? Sep 29 $9 $0 -4%
Will Israel not strike Yemen by October 1 ET? Sep 29 $100 −$37 -37%
Houthi strike on Israel by September 15? Sep 15 $614 +$123 +20%
US Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka Sep 04 $500 +$114 +23%
Euro Basket: Turkey vs Serbia Sep 03 $397 −$397 -100%
US Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Iga Swiatek Sep 03 $500 −$500 -100%
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? Sep 01 $500 −$40 -8%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 67-68°F on August 31 Aug 31 $500 +$122 +24%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Au Aug 30 $500 +$109 +22%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4400 and $4500 on August 29 at Aug 30 $400 +$107 +27%
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 23 $999 +$100 +10%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 09 $1,998 +$4 +0%
Solana all time high by June 30? May 08 $999 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $19 2h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 2h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 2h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 45¢ $70 3h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $98 3h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 3h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 3h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 39¢ $81 3h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 77¢ $113 3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $179 3h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $180 3h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 5d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 5d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 75¢ $111 5d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 6d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 6d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 6d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 6d
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? BUY No $100 168d
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? BUY No $200 168d
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? BUY No $100 168d
Maduro out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $186 168d
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31? SELL No 54¢ $186 168d
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $482 168d
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? SELL No 76¢ $482 168d
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $207 168d
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31? BUY No 58¢ $200 169d
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? SELL No 98¢ $407 171d
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? BUY No 58¢ $367 172d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $401.97 · official $403.55 (match) · 124 history records