Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A7 0xa7cb…8cac sports 82 markets active 5h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-8%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%36W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$6
14 days+$4
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$22
crypto 38% −$30
other 15% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -15.4% -23.4% 38% 38% -30.6%
≤30d 34 +13.1% +2.4% 62% 62% +8.7%
≤90d 60 -14.2% -22.3% 45% 43% -8.2%
all 79 -14.6% -22.7% 46% 39% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 39% -17.4%
10% -30.1% 38% -25.3%
15% -36.9% 38% -32.5%
20% -43.1% 30% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses36 / 43
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)79 / 82
History coverage235d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 79 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$3 +124%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$4 +140%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3 +$3 +114%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $4 +$2 +60%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $3 +$2 +70%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $2 +$1 +70%
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $2 +$1 +55%
United States vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $3 +$2 +52%
Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $4 +$3 +90%
Australia vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $2 +$2 +118%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $4 +$2 +57%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $4 +$2 +46%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $4 +$2 +42%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Sevilla FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $3 +$3 +79%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $1 +$1 +90%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to S May 23 $5 +$3 +67%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.5 May 23 $6 +$2 +42%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 May 22 $4 −$4 -100%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 May 22 $5 +$7 +139%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $5 +$3 +64%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $2 +$3 +165%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 May 19 $6 +$4 +64%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5 May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 May 16 $4 +$4 +90%
Levante UD vs. CA Osasuna: Both Teams to Score May 09 $3 +$2 +76%
Torino FC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: Both Teams to Score May 09 $4 +$3 +76%
FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5 May 02 $4 +$5 +123%
FC Nantes vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to Score May 02 $5 −$3 -52%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $4 −$4 -100%
1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to Score May 02 $5 +$2 +47%
Over $7M committed to the Infinex public sale? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2025-12-13? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score May 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-27? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold close between $4700 and $4800 at the end of 2025? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $2 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY 28¢ $3 20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY 33¢ $3 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $4 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $3 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $3 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY 41¢ $5 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $3 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $3 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $3 6d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 62¢ $4 7d
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $3 10d
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 10d
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $2 11d
United States vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 65¢ $3 11d
Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $4 11d
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $2 11d
Australia vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 11d
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $4 12d
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 12d
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $2 13d
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $4 13d
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $4 14d
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $4 14d
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $4 15d
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 16d
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 16d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1 18d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records