Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:30:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7cc…644e sports 148 markets active 2d ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17,882 (+2%) realized −$1,995 · open +$19,877
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate68%98W / 47L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,672per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$75,391now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2,167
14 days+$2,221
30 days−$7,303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% +$3,352
other 18% +$5,357
world 17% +$10,086
economics 8% +$1,419
sports 7% −$519
tech 5% −$2,007
culture 0% +$191
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +17.0% +5.9% 67% 22% -4.0%
≤30d 28 -11.0% -19.5% 57% 29% -17.0%
≤90d 72 -30.9% -37.5% 46% 17% -13.1%
all 145 +0.2% -9.3% 68% 30% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 30% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 20% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 17% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 13% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$4,663) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$338 vs −$797 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$75,391
Realized−$1,995
Unrealized+$19,877
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses98 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions3
Markets (closed)145 / 148
History coverage243d
Avg bet$6,672
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $49,824 $64,407 +$14,583 (+29%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 100¢ $5,690 $10,983 +$5,294 (+93%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $780 +$1,220 +156%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $2,370 +$1,044 +44%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 15 $5,863 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $670 −$40 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $1,640 −$742 -45%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 15 $24,141 +$685 +3%
Will Jalen Johnson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $139 $0 +0%
Will Deni Avdija win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $139 $0 +0%
Will Brandon Ingram win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $246 +$54 +22%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $101 +$60 +60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 29 $1,706 −$1,706 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $10,233 −$8,958 -88%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $9,200 +$526 +6%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 27 $890 +$7 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $42 −$16 -38%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? May 26 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? May 26 $966 +$30 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $4,250 +$710 +17%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $321 −$321 -100%
Will Nickeil Alexander-Walker win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? May 26 $110 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $255 −$255 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $253 −$253 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $3,013 −$695 -23%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $640 +$360 +56%
Chirayu Rana sued? May 20 $2,896 +$617 +21%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $522 +$481 +92%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $308,262 $0 +0%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $228 −$224 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 06 $1,802 +$88 +5%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 05 $33,988 +$88 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 03 $22,810 +$110 +0%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $4 +$2 +47%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $823 −$3 -0%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 01 $61 +$39 +64%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? May 01 $4,500 +$9 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $32,922 +$66 +0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Apr 30 $1,852 +$15 +1%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 30 $654 +$45 +7%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 30 $6,785 +$22 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $18,375 +$105 +1%
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $3,442 +$261 +8%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 23 $997 +$2 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $33,567 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 10 $33,532 +$34 +0%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Apr 08 $492 −$441 -90%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Big Game - Winning Conference Apr 08 $37 −$37 -100%
Bills vs. Dolphins Apr 08 $93 −$93 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,499 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $572 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $202 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $3,190 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $545 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $406 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,014 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $2,535 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $981 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $845 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $196 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $6,777 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $517 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,035 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $52 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,244 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $3,414 2d
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $5,863 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,577 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $890 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $630 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $897 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $4,920 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $8,250 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $8,294 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75,391.03 · official $75,390.43 (match) · 2396 history records