Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7cc…fd13 crypto 84 markets active 0h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$414 (-15%) realized −$415 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate95%79W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$1
sports 15% −$420
other 13% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +5.5% -4.5% 98% 22% -9.5%
≤30d 80 +5.5% -4.5% 98% 22% -9.5%
≤90d 80 +5.5% -4.5% 98% 22% -9.5%
all 83 +3.8% -6.0% 95% 23% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 23% -24.7%
10% -15.0% 7% -31.9%
15% -23.2% 4% -38.5%
20% -30.8% 1% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$163 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$415
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses79 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage247d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 73¢ 80¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$51 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $46 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $37 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $45 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $52 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $46 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $60 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.51 · official $3.18 · 166 history records