Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:09:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A7 0xa7d0…ea1e other 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$3
politics 18% −$3
sports 7% +$8
economics 6% −$1
finance 2% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +7.1% -3.1% 25% 25% -3.4%
≤30d 17 +1.6% -8.1% 12% 6% -9.0%
≤90d 111 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 9% -9.5%
all 111 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 9% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 9% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 8% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×7.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 98
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)111 / 114
History coverage87d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 +$4 +29%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $18 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $16 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $16 $0 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $22 $0 -0%
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $17 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 01 $48 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $218 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $24 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $17 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $106 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $107 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 16 $202 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $311 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 14 $103 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $219 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $112 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $104 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 10 $113 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $221 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $104 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $214 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $111 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 05 $112 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $301 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 04 $109 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $107 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $115 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $419 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 01 $8 $0 +1%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $203 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $113 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $108 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? Apr 26 $113 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $220 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $212 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $232 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $111 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $227 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $109 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $115 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $116 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $112 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 7h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 25h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $16 28h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 2d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $75 4d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 7d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 8d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 10d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 13d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 13d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 14d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 14d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $22 15d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $22 15d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 16d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 16d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $15 17d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 17d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 18d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 18d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $24 19d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.06 · official $119.06 (match) · 309 history records