Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:45:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A7 0xa7d1…72f2 crypto 201 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$361 (-1%) realized −$418 · open +$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate79%154W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,088now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$27
14 days+$61
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$468
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -14.9% -23.0% 80% 0% -5.6%
≤30d 32 -5.1% -14.2% 88% 31% -10.7%
≤90d 194 -4.0% -13.1% 79% 20% -11.3%
all 194 -4.0% -13.1% 79% 20% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 20% -11.3%
10% -21.4% 0% -19.8%
15% -29.0% 0% -27.6%
20% -36.0% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$53 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$1,088
Realized−$418
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses154 / 40
Open positions7
Markets (closed)194 / 201
History coverage87d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? No 90¢ 100¢ $200 $221 +$21 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? No 90¢ 97¢ $200 $215 +$15 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? No 94¢ 100¢ $200 $211 +$11 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 15-21? No 95¢ 100¢ $200 $211 +$11 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 95¢ 95¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 95¢ 95¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 89¢ 89¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $14 −$13 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $201 +$17 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $101 +$11 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $99 +$11 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $200 +$11 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $97 +$7 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $194 +$22 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $201 +$26 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $101 +$13 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $100 +$11 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $201 +$22 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $201 +$16 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $101 +$9 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $202 −$200 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $201 +$12 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $100 +$15 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $201 +$10 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $201 +$12 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $201 +$12 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31? May 30 $201 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? May 25 $112 +$17 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 18-24? May 25 $201 +$14 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 18-24? May 25 $202 +$28 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 22 $201 +$13 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 21 $201 +$18 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17? May 18 $201 +$30 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 11-17? May 18 $202 +$32 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 11-17? May 18 $198 +$13 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 11-17? May 18 $200 +$11 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? May 15 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17? May 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 11-17? May 14 $201 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13? May 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $201 +$19 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10? May 11 $101 +$14 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 4-10? May 11 $201 +$19 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10? May 11 $202 +$26 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 4-10? May 11 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10? May 08 $101 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? May 08 $201 +$20 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? May 07 $200 +$13 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $100 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 88¢ $9 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 89¢ $22 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 95¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $100 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? BUY No 91¢ $101 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? BUY No 90¢ $101 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY No 91¢ $101 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY No 90¢ $101 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 15-21? BUY No 95¢ $100 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 15-21? BUY No 95¢ $100 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY No 94¢ $100 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY No 95¢ $100 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? BUY No 94¢ $100 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? BUY No 94¢ $100 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? BUY No 95¢ $57 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? BUY No 95¢ $43 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? BUY No 92¢ $101 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? BUY No 92¢ $37 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? BUY No 92¢ $58 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? BUY No 92¢ $6 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 89¢ $101 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? BUY No 89¢ $99 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 93¢ $97 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 94¢ $4 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 94¢ $94 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 94¢ $2 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 89¢ $46 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 85¢ $94 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,087.94 · official $1,087.94 (match) · 726 history records