trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | -54.6% | -58.9% | 11% | 11% | -33.3% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -42.6% | -48.0% | 23% | 23% | -29.2% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -42.6% | -48.0% | 23% | 23% | -29.2% |
| all | 13 | -42.6% | -48.0% | 23% | 23% | -29.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -48.0% | 23% | -29.2% |
| 10% | -53.0% | 23% | -36.0% |
| 15% | -57.6% | 8% | -42.2% |
| 20% | -61.7% | 0% | -47.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 3¢ | 3¢ | $50 | $53 | +$3 (+6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | Jun 15 | $757 | −$728 | -96% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? | Jun 15 | $270 | −$232 | -86% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 15 | $2,735 | −$750 | -27% |
| Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | Jun 15 | $46 | −$44 | -96% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | Jun 15 | $1,040 | −$795 | -76% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 15 | $2,746 | −$2,067 | -75% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Jun 15 | $5,881 | −$571 | -10% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $3,130 | +$876 | +28% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $233 | −$104 | -44% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | Jun 06 | $711 | +$165 | +23% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 01 | $670 | +$319 | +48% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | Jun 01 | $112 | −$37 | -33% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 30 | $19 | −$18 | -96% |