Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:58:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7d5…9087 world 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%42W / 69L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$5
other 20% −$2
sports 15% +$5
politics 14% −$3
economics 5% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -3.1% -12.4% 36% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 39 -0.7% -10.2% 36% 3% -9.2%
≤90d 73 -0.4% -9.9% 32% 1% -9.4%
all 111 -3.0% -12.3% 38% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 4% -9.4%
10% -20.7% 2% -18.1%
15% -28.3% 1% -26.0%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses42 / 69
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage531d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 96¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $33 +$1 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -39%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $37 +$1 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $32 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 -2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $27 −$1 -3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $32 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $38 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $69 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $37 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $9 −$1 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $39 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $3 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $50 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $56 +$2 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $48 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $17 +$1 +8%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 01 $76 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $64 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $34 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $31 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $35 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $70 +$4 +6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $1 $0 +13%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $30 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $9 −$1 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $34 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $1 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 17 $63 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $29 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $29 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $134 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $33 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $64 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $4 44m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $30 44m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $33 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 30h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 32h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 94¢ $38 41h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 92¢ $37 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $16 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $19 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $32 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $9 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $23 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $23 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $9 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $32 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $32 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $23 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $27 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.21 · official $0.00 · 414 history records