Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A7 0xa7d9…5e9a crypto 286 markets active 2h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$66 (+0%) realized +$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%275W / 10L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$75
other 15% −$6
economics 10% −$4
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 24 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 60 +0.2% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 285 +0.4% -9.2% 96% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.82 per $1 lost it wins $6.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses275 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)285 / 286
History coverage252d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $203 $203 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 28? Jun 28 $144 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 28? Jun 28 $59 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 26? Jun 26 $93 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 26? Jun 26 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.70 on June 23? Jun 23 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 23? Jun 23 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 21? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 21? Jun 21 $64 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 20? Jun 20 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 18? Jun 18 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 17? Jun 17 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 16? Jun 16 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 14? Jun 14 $93 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 12? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 12? Jun 12 $75 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 9? Jun 09 $115 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $90 June 1-7? Jun 08 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 6? Jun 06 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $198 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $198 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $198 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $181 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on May 28? May 28 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? May 26 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 25? May 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 18-24? May 25 $165 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 23? May 24 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? May 20 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 19? May 19 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 17? May 17 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? May 15 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 14? May 14 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 10? May 10 $196 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 8? May 08 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 7? May 07 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 3? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on April 29? May 02 $196 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on April 25? Apr 25 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,800 on April 23? Apr 23 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 20? Apr 20 $195 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 April 13-19? Apr 20 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 17? Apr 18 $194 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 16? Apr 17 $194 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 15? Apr 16 $194 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 14? Apr 15 $194 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 13? Apr 14 $194 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $193 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $203 1h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $44 2d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $93 5d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $97 5d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $12 5d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $114 7d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.70 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $88 8d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $64 10d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $32 10d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $18 11d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $88 11d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $95 11d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $95 13d
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $105 15d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $93 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $94 19d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $26 19d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $5 20d
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $75 20d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $115 22d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $116 22d
Will Solana reach $90 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $82 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $198 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $198 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $198 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 25-31? BUY No 100¢ $181 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $181 33d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $181 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.80 · official $202.80 (match) · 655 history records