Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:27:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7d9…c3cb crypto 205 markets active 0h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$361 (-3%) realized −$348 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate61%122W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$190
7 days−$622
14 days−$534
30 days−$587
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% +$61
weather 29% −$355
other 9% −$218
world 5% −$24
sports 3% +$25
politics 3% +$44
tech 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -8.8% -17.5% 45% 31% -26.6%
≤30d 74 -5.9% -14.9% 51% 26% -17.9%
≤90d 103 -4.1% -13.3% 62% 23% -13.6%
all 200 -1.8% -11.1% 61% 29% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 29% -12.6%
10% -19.6% 18% -21.0%
15% -27.4% 11% -28.6%
20% -34.5% 8% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$20 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized−$348
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses122 / 78
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)200 / 205
History coverage204d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 200 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? No 78¢ 71¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Yes 69¢ 63¢ $34 $32 −$3 (-9%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 71¢ 70¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $205 −$52 -25%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $203 −$36 -18%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $62 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $51 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Natus Vincere reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $101 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -41%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$13 +602%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $51 +$11 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $101 +$13 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 14 $92 −$92 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 +$14 +14%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $100 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $101 +$20 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $103 +$117 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 −$91 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $201 +$21 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $201 −$34 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $203 −$106 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $302 −$296 -98%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $100 −$6 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $196 +$79 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $302 +$29 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 11m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 33m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $107 51m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 78¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 96¢ $53 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $56 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $55 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $50 28h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $153 29h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $167 29h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $49 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 61¢ $48 30h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $50 31h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 62¢ $51 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.25 · official $194.60 · 690 history records