Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:41:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A7 0xa7de…1d43 other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$79 (+4%) realized +$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate59%26W / 18L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days+$53
14 days+$63
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$31
crypto 11% +$18
economics 4% +$68
finance 2% −$30
sports 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +0.9% -8.7% 69% 66% -6.1%
≤30d 31 +4.2% -5.7% 71% 68% -5.5%
≤90d 35 +5.6% -4.4% 66% 63% -7.7%
all 44 +2.2% -7.5% 59% 57% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 57% -5.7%
10% -16.3% 43% -14.7%
15% -24.4% 36% -22.9%
20% -31.8% 27% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$27 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized+$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses26 / 18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage476d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $50 +$10 +20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$15 +29%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$77 +152%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$14 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$11 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $90 +$9 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $81 +$40 +49%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $91 −$62 -68%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 18 $2 +$7 +366%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 25 $60 +$78 +129%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,600 on September 14? Sep 12 $10 +$26 +257%
Bitcoin above $108K on September 1? Aug 30 $20 +$23 +115%
Bitcoin above $116K on September 1? Aug 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in July? Aug 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in July? Aug 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in July? Aug 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum above $2,300 on March 7? Mar 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 75¢ $25 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 42h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 47h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $90 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $35 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.67 · official $149.67 (match) · 89 history records