Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:19:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7df…5094 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$103 (-9%) realized −$190 · open +$87
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%3W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$584now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$60
sports 37% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-44.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -38.2% -44.1% 21% 21% -29.8%
≤30d 14 -38.2% -44.1% 21% 21% -29.8%
≤90d 14 -38.2% -44.1% 21% 21% -29.8%
all 14 -38.2% -44.1% 21% 21% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.1% 21% -29.8%
10% -49.5% 21% -36.5%
15% -54.3% 21% -42.7%
20% -58.8% 21% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$25 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$584
Realized−$190
Unrealized+$87
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses3 / 11
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions8
Markets (closed)14 / 22
History coverage2d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $154 +$104 (+208%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $135 $132 −$3 (-2%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Over 16¢ 14¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 Over 12¢ 12¢ $69 $72 +$3 (+4%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $68 $60 −$8 (-11%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Panama vs. England: O/U 6.5 Over $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 Over $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $54 −$25 -46%
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $111 −$62 -56%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $53 +$163 +309%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: England (-4.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$12 +60%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$8 +152%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Egypt to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 1h
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $28 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes $27 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 11¢ $55 1h
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $21 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 51¢ $216 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $8 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $26 2h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $108 2h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 2h
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $19 2h
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2h
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 2h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 2h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 2h
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 2h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $215 2h
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $49 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 3h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 9h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 40h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 40h
Spread: England (-4.5) BUY England $10 40h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 42¢ $13 45h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 47h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $5 47h
Panama vs. England: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $15 47h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $21 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $584.19 · official $584.21 (match) · 41 history records