Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:17:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A7 0xa7e9…0399 crypto 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 431d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,547 (+18%) realized +$1,529 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%34W / 30L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$685
14 days+$684
30 days+$684
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$1,456
other 4% +$39
world 1% +$12
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +76.9% +60.1% 100% 100% +58.1%
≤30d 5 +32.0% +19.4% 60% 60% +50.6%
≤90d 28 -29.7% -36.4% 32% 32% -14.1%
all 64 +7.1% -3.1% 53% 48% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 48% +5.9%
10% -12.4% 34% -4.2%
15% -20.9% 31% -13.4%
20% -28.6% 19% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$71 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

431d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$1,529
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses34 / 30
Open positions4
Markets (closed)64 / 68
History coverage431d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? Yes 56¢ 100¢ $20 $36 +$16 (+78%)
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $19 $22 +$3 (+15%)
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 16-22? Yes 79¢ 79¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 16-22? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $486 +$193 +40%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $431 +$492 +114%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 07 $50 −$43 -86%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 Jun 07 $24 −$14 -56%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 02 $37 +$55 +149%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 28-May 4? May 03 $345 −$273 -79%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 7-13? Apr 30 $20 +$3 +16%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $10 +$4 +40%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $15 +$35 +232%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 31-April 6? Apr 06 $15 +$3 +20%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase March 31-April 6? Apr 06 $161 +$55 +34%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase March 24-30? Apr 01 $35 +$31 +88%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 24-30? Mar 30 $5 −$2 -49%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 30 $25 −$23 -92%
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Mar 23 $20 −$6 -32%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 17-23? Mar 22 $10 −$9 -94%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase March 17-23? Mar 22 $10 −$7 -73%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase January 27-February 2? Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 10-16? Mar 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Coinbase be accused of insider trading? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase January 13-19? Mar 19 $252 −$252 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19? Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase February 10-16? Mar 19 $15 −$10 -64%
MicroStrategy purchases >4000 BTC August 26-September 1? Mar 19 $110 −$110 -100%
Will MicroStrategy hold 630k+ BTC by August 31? Mar 19 $110 −$64 -58%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28? Mar 19 $78 −$78 -100%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Mar 17 $10 −$8 -80%
Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy Mar 10 $266 +$111 +42%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 740k+ BTC by February 28? Mar 02 $20 +$4 +19%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase February 24-March 2? Mar 02 $232 +$158 +68%
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026? Feb 28 $33 −$1 -3%
Pakistan strikes Afghanistan by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $10 +$9 +89%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase February 3-9? Feb 26 $564 −$79 -14%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $20 +$7 +37%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase January 6-12? Jan 12 $135 +$62 +46%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 680k+ BTC by January 31? Jan 11 $20 +$1 +4%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 30-January 5? Jan 06 $30 +$104 +348%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 02 $10 −$9 -90%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8? Dec 19 $116 +$71 +61%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase November 11-17? Nov 14 $35 −$10 -28%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 12-18? Nov 14 $20 +$2 +12%
MicroStrategy purchases >4000 BTC September 2-8? Sep 05 $50 −$34 -68%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 5-11? Aug 08 $40 −$13 -33%
MicroStrategy purchases >5000 BTC July 22-28? Jul 25 $50 +$6 +12%
MicroStrategy purchases >5000 BTC July 15-21? Jul 21 $169 +$2 +1%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 15-21? Jul 21 $170 +$30 +18%
MicroStrategy purchases >5000 BTC July 8-14? Jul 14 $100 +$136 +136%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 8-14? Jul 13 $100 +$15 +14%
MicroStrategy purchases >8000 BTC July 1-7? Jul 07 $86 +$32 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 16-22? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 1h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 16-22? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 1h
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 4d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 5d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 5d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? SELL Yes 95¢ $125 7d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? SELL Yes 96¢ $218 7d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? SELL Yes 95¢ $136 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 8d
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 SELL Yes 22¢ $10 8d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? SELL Yes 76¢ $75 8d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? SELL Yes 75¢ $74 8d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? SELL Yes 88¢ $139 8d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? SELL Yes 88¢ $87 8d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? SELL Yes 88¢ $87 8d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? SELL Yes 88¢ $88 8d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? SELL Yes 88¢ $87 8d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? SELL Yes 89¢ $88 8d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? SELL Yes 75¢ $74 8d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? SELL Yes 76¢ $74 8d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 40¢ $64 8d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 53¢ $49 8d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 8d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 8d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 49¢ $52 8d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 39¢ $11 8d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 36¢ $8 8d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 8d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.05 · official $77.05 (match) · 420 history records