Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:42:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7eb…7169 other 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%51W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$5
world 27% −$8
politics 22% +$1
sports 10% +$1
crypto 5% −$7
economics 3% +$1
tech 2% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.3% -9.2% 40% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 24 -4.5% -13.6% 38% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 61 -4.0% -13.2% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 130 -3.6% -12.8% 39% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 3% -9.7%
10% -21.1% 1% -18.4%
15% -28.8% 1% -26.3%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses51 / 79
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)130 / 134
History coverage481d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+53%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 14¢ 17¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+19%)
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $103 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $93 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $100 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $87 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $263 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $79 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $178 +$3 +2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $264 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $87 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $88 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $150 −$3 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $51 −$5 -11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $94 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $4 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $136 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 -8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $174 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $96 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 +1%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $104 +$1 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $105 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $89 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 12 $6 $0 -3%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $200 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 12 $105 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $78 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $104 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $345 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $143 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $95 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $95 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $120 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $2 $0 -16%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $96 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 07 $109 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 07 $89 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $95 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $95 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $2 $0 -14%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $91 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $103 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $103 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 14h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $59 19h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $34 19h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $93 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $2 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $21 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $33 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $50 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $28 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $71 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $99 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $35 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $35 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 78¢ $83 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 78¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 78¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $89 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $2 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $19 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $19 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $78 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.12 · official $0.00 · 481 history records