Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:46:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A7
0xa7f1…dcf7
crypto · 14 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$22 -45%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$22 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses3 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage148d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 0 History 14 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$4 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more? Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 15 $1 $0 +11%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? Mar 02 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 23 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Feb 16 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Feb 16 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Feb 14 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Feb 14 $1 $0 +12%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 18 $10 −$6 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 45% −$12
finance 21% +$2
world 21% −$6
politics 10% −$5
other 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 89d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? SELL Down 100¢ $12 102d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? BUY Down 86¢ $5 104d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? BUY Down 86¢ $5 104d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? SELL No 92¢ $1 109d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $2 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 116d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? BUY No 91¢ $1 116d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $2 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $0 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $0 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 118d
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 132d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 145d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 148d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-53.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 6 -81.5% -83.2% 17% 17% -93.3%
all 14 -48.0% -53.0% 21% 21% -51.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.0% 21% -51.1%
10% -57.5% 0% -55.8%
15% -61.6% 0% -60.1%
20% -65.3% 0% -64.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records