Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:28:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

A7 0xa7f2…97f1 crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$49 (+21%) realized +$49 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate89%8W / 1L

Drawdown10%max

Avg bet$26per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)+0.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+10.7%	+0.2%	89%	56%	+9.3%
≤30d	9	+10.7%	+0.2%	89%	56%	+9.3%
≤90d	9	+10.7%	+0.2%	89%	56%	+9.3%
all	9	+10.7%	+0.2%	89%	56%	+9.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+0.2%	56%	+9.3%
10%	-9.4%	11%	-1.2%
15%	-18.2%	11%	-10.7%
20%	-26.2%	11%	-19.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 56% · top 2 69% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

38% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +11% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×10.25 per $1 lost it wins $10.25

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$49

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)89%

Wins / losses8 / 1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)9 / 9

History coverage1d

Avg bet$26

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown10%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 9 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Jun 18	$50	+$2	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Jun 18	$25	+$5	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Jun 18	$25	+$5	+21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Jun 18	$26	+$31	+119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Jun 18	$25	+$1	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Jun 18	$50	+$7	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Jun 18	$25	+$3	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Jun 18	$5	$0	+2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	BUY Down	95¢	$50	44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	BUY Up	82¢	$25	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Down	83¢	$25	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	SELL Down	100¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	BUY Down	94¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	BUY Down	87¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUY Down	89¢	$25	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	BUY Down	98¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records