Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:57:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7f8…98ea politics 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate16%7W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$2
other 25% −$2
sports 20% −$2
world 7% $0
crypto 3% +$1
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 6 +2.2% -7.6% 50% 17% -9.0%
≤90d 7 +1.9% -7.8% 57% 14% -9.0%
all 44 -5.0% -14.0% 16% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 2% -9.7%
10% -22.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses7 / 37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage229d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $84 $84 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $84 +$2 +2%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $86 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $74 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $81 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 04 $83 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $82 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 16 $173 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 08 $83 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 30 $1 $0 -17%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 29 $83 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 27 $84 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $2 $0 -7%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 25 $81 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 25 $1 $0 -33%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 24 $85 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 22 $2 $0 -12%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 22 $84 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 22 $2 −$1 -41%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 21 $166 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $82 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 15 $85 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 08 $88 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 04 $86 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 30 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 27 $86 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 24 $88 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 21 $87 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 16 $87 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 14 $85 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Dec 11 $86 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 09 $88 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 07 $86 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 03 $86 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 01 $87 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 29 $85 $0 +0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $85 $0 -0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 22 $91 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win on 2025-11-18? Nov 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 18 $1 $0 -20%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 16 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 12 $91 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 09 $92 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $84 2d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $85 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 11d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 12d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $74 12d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $74 13d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 13d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 15d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $81 15d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $81 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $83 22d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $82 114d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $84 128d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $84 131d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $83 145d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 145d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 146d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $83 147d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 147d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $84 148d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $84 149d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 150d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 150d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $81 150d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $81 150d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 150d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.71 · official $85.72 (match) · 161 history records