Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:50:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7fb…e5be politics 44 markets active 3h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized +$5 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%6W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$2
sports 34% −$3
other 13% −$17
world 8% $0
crypto 5% −$2
tech 3% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 -25.0% -32.1% 25% 0% -9.7%
all 43 -11.8% -20.2% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -27.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -34.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -41.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses6 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage227d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 42¢ 35¢ $91 $74 −$16 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $91 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 05 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21? May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $89 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 09 $91 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 27 $2 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 24 $89 $0 -0%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 Feb 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 15 $89 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 09 $90 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 26? Jan 27 $90 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 25 $89 $0 +0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 23 $90 $0 -0%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 21 $93 $0 +0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 18 $91 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 17 $90 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $183 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 13 $92 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 09 $90 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 08 $93 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 04 $89 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 01 $88 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 30 $1 $0 -12%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 30 $93 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 28 $91 −$2 -2%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 25 $94 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 18 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 16 $92 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 12 $92 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 06 $93 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 06 $2 −$1 -58%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 04 $96 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 02 $93 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 28 $96 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 25 $97 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $93 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 22 $93 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $98 $0 -0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 15 $98 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 10 $96 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 42¢ $92 2h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $91 40h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $91 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $89 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21? BUY No 0¢ $1 35d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $89 46d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $89 106d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $91 107d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $91 117d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 117d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 24? BUY No 0¢ $1 120d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 120d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $89 120d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $89 127d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 127d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 129d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 129d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 132d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 132d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 135d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $90 135d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $90 148d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 26? BUY No 100¢ $90 149d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $89 150d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $89 151d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $90 152d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $90 154d
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? BUY No 100¢ $93 156d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $91 157d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $91 158d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.48 · official $74.28 (match) · 212 history records