Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:38:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7fc…4bf2 world 41 markets active 3h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate44%18W / 23L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$2
other 24% +$5
politics 13% +$1
weather 3% $0
finance 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.6% -10.0% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -1.1% -10.6% 38% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 14 -1.1% -10.5% 36% 0% -10.2%
all 41 -3.9% -13.1% 44% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 5% -9.2%
10% -21.4% 2% -17.9%
15% -29.0% 2% -25.9%
20% -36.0% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses18 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage447d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $28 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $17 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $75 −$2 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $53 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $51 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 22 $11 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $37 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $8 −$1 -11%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Dec 14 $3 +$1 +21%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 28 $14 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $7 $0 +2%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 27 $6 $0 -1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jun 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 20 $4 +$2 +60%
Will Bayern Munich beat Auckland City? Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 08 $20 +$1 +3%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 04 $3 $0 -16%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $24 +$1 +5%
2025 March hottest on record? Apr 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will 1-2 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon' Apr 05 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Apr 05 $3 $0 +0%
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? Apr 03 $23 $0 +1%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -47%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -85%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 30? Mar 30 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $40 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $40 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $37 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $26 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $12 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $28 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $28 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $4 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 32h
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $29 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $10 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $40 23d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $15 24d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $15 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $17 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $17 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $14 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $17 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $34 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $38 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 27d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $2 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $40 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $1 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $41 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $41 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $41 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.83 · official $0.00 (match) · 146 history records