Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:44:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A7 0xa7fd…bb05 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,288 (-71%) realized −$1,276 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%2W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1,295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$1,328
world 5% +$16
crypto 1% −$6
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-39.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -63.1% -66.6% 0% 0% -56.9%
≤90d 3 -16.3% -24.2% 33% 33% -44.9%
all 13 -32.6% -39.0% 15% 15% -45.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.0% 15% -45.2%
10% -44.9% 15% -50.5%
15% -50.2% 15% -55.2%
20% -55.1% 15% -59.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -244% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -202% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$123 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$1,276
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses2 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage132d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 51¢ 26¢ $25 $12 −$12 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GameStop acquire eBay? May 19 $298 −$78 -26%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1,295 −$1,217 -94%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $52 +$41 +78%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 14 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 14 $6 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 19 $5 −$2 -42%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $4 −$2 -34%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 18 $6 +$4 +60%
Will the US strike Mexico next? Feb 13 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of February? Feb 05 $47 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 5? Feb 05 $22 −$6 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $25 1h
Will GameStop acquire eBay? SELL Yes 14¢ $220 28d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? SELL Yes $60 28d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,122 28d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $173 29d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 38d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 18¢ $134 38d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 42d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 17¢ $148 42d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $93 79d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $52 79d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes $3 91d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL Yes $5 94d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes $6 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $6 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $6 114d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? SELL Yes $3 118d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? SELL Yes $3 118d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? BUY Yes $4 118d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? BUY Yes $5 118d
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? SELL Yes $10 118d
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? BUY Yes $6 119d
Will the US strike Mexico next? BUY Yes $10 126d
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? BUY Yes $2 127d
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? BUY Yes $2 127d
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? BUY Yes $20 127d
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? BUY Yes $1 127d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of February? SELL Yes $6 132d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of February? SELL Yes $7 132d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of February? SELL Yes $2 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.50 · official $12.50 (match) · 35 history records