Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:09:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7fe…5a93 sports 293 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-1%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%146W / 147L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$113
crypto 21% −$48
other 15% −$93
world 4% −$15
weather 0% −$10
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -18.9% -26.6% 0% 0% -26.6%
≤30d 6 -18.9% -26.6% 0% 0% -26.6%
≤90d 164 -6.4% -15.3% 42% 41% -13.9%
all 293 -1.6% -11.0% 50% 48% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 48% -10.7%
10% -19.5% 45% -19.2%
15% -27.3% 43% -27.0%
20% -34.4% 37% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses146 / 147
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)293 / 293
History coverage106d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 293 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -19%
Wild vs. Blues Apr 13 $10 −$2 -24%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Apr 13 $10 −$2 -17%
Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 13 $10 −$3 -27%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 13 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Apr 13 $15 −$4 -29%
Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5 Apr 13 $10 +$10 +101%
Spread: Magic (-13.5) Apr 13 $10 +$8 +84%
Spread: Heat (-9.5) Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Rosenborg BK win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $10 +$13 +133%
UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Hurricanes vs. Blackhawks Apr 10 $10 +$5 +49%
Penguins vs. Devils: O/U 6.5 Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
76ers vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5 Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Pacers (-3.5) Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins Apr 09 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 231.5 Apr 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5) Apr 09 $15 +$14 +93%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 08 $15 +$26 +172%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 08 $15 +$14 +93%
Avalanche vs. Blues: O/U 6.5 Apr 08 $15 +$12 +82%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-6.5) Apr 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Magic (-5.5) Apr 07 $15 +$13 +87%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Molde FK vs. Lillestrøm SK: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $15 +$27 +178%
Blues vs. Avalanche Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Magic vs. Pelicans Apr 06 $15 −$15 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Apr 06 $15 +$15 +101%
Spread: Suns (-9.5) Apr 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Bucks (-5.5) Apr 05 $15 +$14 +93%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FOKUS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 05 $5 +$1 +12%
UFC Fight Night: Ethyn Ewing vs. Rafael Estevam (Bantamweight, Main Ca Apr 05 $15 +$13 +90%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 05 $15 −$9 -61%
Avalanche vs. Stars Apr 05 $15 +$14 +92%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 04 $15 +$8 +55%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5) Apr 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Apr 04 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Apr 04 $10 +$10 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 8h
Wild vs. Blues SELL Wild 37¢ $8 63d
Hurricanes vs. Flyers SELL Hurricanes 40¢ $8 63d
Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 32¢ $7 63d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 50¢ $11 63d
Wild vs. Blues BUY Wild 49¢ $10 63d
Hurricanes vs. Flyers BUY Hurricanes 48¢ $10 63d
Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $10 63d
Spread: Heat (-9.5) BUY Hawks 54¢ $10 64d
Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 64d
Spread: Magic (-13.5) BUY Celtics 54¢ $10 64d
Will Rosenborg BK win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 64d
UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Aaron Pico 70¢ $10 66d
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) BUY Celtics 51¢ $10 67d
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Celtics 47¢ $10 67d
Penguins vs. Devils: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 48¢ $10 67d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 52¢ $10 67d
76ers vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 67d
Hurricanes vs. Blackhawks BUY Hurricanes 67¢ $10 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1025 history records