Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:02:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A7 0xa7ff…2ea2 tech 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+4%) realized +$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$66
14 days+$78
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 55% +$66
politics 38% +$11
economics 7% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -9.6% -18.2% 75% 25% -0.7%
≤30d 10 -17.5% -25.4% 70% 10% -6.0%
≤90d 10 -17.5% -25.4% 70% 10% -6.0%
all 10 -17.5% -25.4% 70% 10% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 10% -6.0%
10% -32.5% 0% -15.0%
15% -39.0% 0% -23.2%
20% -45.0% 0% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$18 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage16d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 22 $332 +$33 +10%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 22 $209 +$36 +17%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 22 $117 +$7 +6%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 17 $15 −$11 -72%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $434 +$23 +5%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% in May? Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in May? Jun 10 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $26 −$12 -46%
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in May? Jun 08 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 47¢ $238 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 41¢ $102 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 37¢ $103 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 27¢ $67 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 54¢ $163 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 32¢ $10 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes 10¢ $12 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 23¢ $14 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 18¢ $14 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 22¢ $15 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 50¢ $15 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 47¢ $19 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 23¢ $19 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 34¢ $30 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 41¢ $30 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 32¢ $31 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 42¢ $29 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 14¢ $31 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 46¢ $20 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 46¢ $20 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 39¢ $31 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 38¢ $12 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 37¢ $28 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes 29¢ $112 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL No 86¢ $27 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on SELL Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 38¢ $38 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 38¢ $31 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY Yes 20¢ $10 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY Yes 20¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records