Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:48:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa805…27e0 crypto 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$846 (-6%) realized −$844 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate30%22W / 51L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$388
7 days−$175
14 days−$175
30 days−$526
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$1,328
economics 21% −$730
crypto 18% +$118
tech 14% +$478
sports 7% +$1,023
politics 3% −$352
world 2% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -14.2% -22.4% 33% 33% -17.8%
≤30d 12 -14.9% -23.0% 33% 33% -28.1%
≤90d 19 -17.9% -25.7% 32% 26% -30.2%
all 73 -8.2% -16.9% 30% 22% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 22% -15.0%
10% -24.9% 19% -23.1%
15% -32.1% 16% -30.5%
20% -38.8% 16% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -29% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$220 vs −$112 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$844
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses22 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage210d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 56¢ 51¢ $27 $25 −$2 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $786 −$34 -4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $604 −$594 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $365 +$240 +66%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $153 +$234 +153%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $128 −$126 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 31 $1 +$1 +67%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $65 +$61 +93%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 30 $105 −$102 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $350 −$184 -53%
Will Mark Cuban be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? May 29 $1 $0 -2%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $399 +$9 +2%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $92 +$308 +335%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $290 −$290 -100%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $140 −$87 -62%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $334 −$334 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $300 +$18 +6%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $173 −$173 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Feb 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $400 −$196 -49%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-24? Feb 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-02-24? Feb 24 $55 +$358 +650%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 04 $500 −$270 -54%
Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during Fed chair announcement? Jan 30 $51 −$51 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner Jan 30 $206 +$1,645 +798%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 30 $150 −$79 -52%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Jan 30 $150 −$15 -10%
Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Casper Ruud Jan 26 $557 −$557 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 mi Jan 26 $79 −$23 -29%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 26 $100 +$394 +394%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 25? Jan 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jan 24 $300 −$153 -51%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 22 $400 −$365 -91%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 16 $1,100 −$236 -22%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Dec 16 $500 −$53 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Dec 11 $20 +$20 +99%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 11 $250 −$250 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 10 $1,800 +$598 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Dec 08 $47 −$47 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Dec 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 08 $20 −$2 -10%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 08 $75 +$4 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 5? Dec 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 4? Dec 03 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Dec 03 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $27 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $26 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $604 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 99¢ $605 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $365 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $16 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $387 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $36 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $153 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Casper Ruud 37¢ $26 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Casper Ruud 55¢ $101 27d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 51¢ $65 28d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 28d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes $166 28d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 16¢ $350 28d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $351 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul BUY Casper Ruud 59¢ $1 29d
Will Mark Cuban be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? SELL No 98¢ $1 29d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes $2 33d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $358 37d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $375 62d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $392 71d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 43¢ $399 73d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $399 73d
Will Mark Cuban be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? BUY No 99¢ $1 74d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 23¢ $92 76d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $10 76d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $100 79d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $40 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.52 · official $24.52 (match) · 184 history records