Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:56:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa806…53bc other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 290d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate44%24W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$1
other 25% $0
politics 12% $0
sports 8% $0
culture 8% −$1
economics 7% +$1
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.7% -8.9% 67% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 13 +0.6% -9.0% 62% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 13 +0.6% -9.0% 62% 8% -9.4%
all 55 +0.2% -9.4% 44% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses24 / 31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)55 / 57
History coverage290d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 78¢ 78¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $21 $0 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $32 +$1 +4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $34 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $7 $0 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 25 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $38 −$4 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $32 +$4 +12%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $52 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $34 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Dec 05 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31? Oct 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 28 $5 $0 -1%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $14 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $1 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30? Sep 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Do Kwon in 2025? Sep 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 18 $5 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 18 $4 $0 +9%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Sharon Horgan win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Dram Sep 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $2 $0 -7%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Sep 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 09 $34 −$1 -3%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 09 $24 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 08 $35 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 08 $13 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 08 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $32 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $20 5h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 84¢ $31 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 84¢ $2 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $32 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $11 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $20 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $31 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $3 35h
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $33 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $34 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $7 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $7 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $7 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $19 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $11 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $37 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $38 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $34 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $37 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $8 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $28 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $0 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $7 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $18 26d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $18 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.86 · official $34.86 (match) · 167 history records