Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:45:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa808…8a45 world 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate28%15W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$6
other 20% +$3
politics 13% −$1
culture 8% $0
tech 5% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 29% 7% -10.7%
≤30d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 6% -10.4%
≤90d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 6% -10.4%
all 53 +0.8% -8.8% 28% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 6% -9.8%
10% -17.5% 6% -18.5%
15% -25.5% 2% -26.3%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses15 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage266d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $24 +$6 +24%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $13 $0 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $25 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $27 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $48 −$11 -23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $74 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $34 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $73 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $76 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Nov 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $8 +$2 +30%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 05 $2 $0 -3%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $2 $0 -6%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $49 $0 -0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Oct 02 $2 +$1 +39%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Oct 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Sumy by December 31? Oct 01 $26 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 30 $2 $0 -3%
Will Solana dip to $190 in September? Sep 29 $19 $0 -2%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 28 $20 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 28 $9 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by between 40% and 45%? Sep 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $8 $0 -6%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 25 $14 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 25 $17 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $3 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $24 18h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $13 23h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $13 24h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $24 33h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $24 37h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 39h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $13 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $11 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $25 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $27 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $25 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $20 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 49¢ $7 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 49¢ $27 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $38 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $38 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $6 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $33 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $34 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.80 · official $32.80 (match) · 198 history records