Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:54:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A8 0xa809…417a crypto 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$298 (-22%) realized −$298 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days−$179
14 days−$307
30 days−$307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$65
crypto 37% −$142
sports 8% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -28.5% -35.4% 33% 33% -28.7%
≤30d 12 -23.6% -30.8% 42% 42% -30.5%
≤90d 12 -23.6% -30.8% 42% 42% -30.5%
all 13 -29.4% -36.2% 38% 38% -30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.2% 38% -30.5%
10% -42.3% 38% -37.1%
15% -47.8% 31% -43.2%
20% -53.0% 15% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$94 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$298
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage129d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $105 +$233 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 25 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $96 +$70 +73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $60 −$60 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $110 +$53 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $222 −$221 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $151 +$37 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $111 +$56 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Feb 15 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $209 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $96 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $60 3d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $110 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $222 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $151 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $111 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records