Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:01:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A8 0xa80b…d4c5 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,132 (+67%) realized +$2,162 · open −$30
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days−$178
14 days+$203
30 days+$2,109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$2,038
sports 16% +$80
crypto 1% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -70.2% -73.0% 17% 17% -44.9%
≤30d 26 +32.9% +20.3% 50% 50% +57.7%
≤90d 26 +32.9% +20.3% 50% 50% +57.7%
all 26 +32.9% +20.3% 50% 50% +57.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.3% 50% +57.7%
10% +8.8% 46% +42.6%
15% -1.8% 42% +28.8%
20% -11.4% 38% +16.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +74% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +112% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$200 vs −$38 · ×5.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.3 per $1 lost it wins $5.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$275
Realized+$2,162
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage25d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 22¢ $100 $190 +$90 (+90%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? No 14¢ $105 $4 −$100 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $101 +$49 +48%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $40 −$39 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $46 −$45 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $61 +$67 +109%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$126 +246%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $201 +$40 +20%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $141 +$43 +30%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$226 +442%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $36 +$64 +177%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 +$199 +388%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,489 +$1,641 +110%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $51 +$60 +118%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $4 +$6 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $108 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $150 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 1h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 21h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? BUY Yes 38¢ $40 22h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 22h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $10 24h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $10 24h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $46 24h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $10 45h
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 47¢ $61 2d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 13¢ $41 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 17¢ $20 3d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $177 7d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 8d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $201 8d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 9d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 9d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 9d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $184 9d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $141 10d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $51 10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $111 13d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $277 13d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $274.82 · official $274.82 (match) · 57 history records