Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:47:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A8
0xa80e…b94b
finance · 58 markets active 1d ago
0.0score
+$564,953 +38%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$584,344 · open −$345
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY finance specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$49,762
Realized+$584,344
Unrealized−$345
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses33 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions9
Markets (closed)49 / 58
History coverage91d
Avg bet$25,711
Trades / day36.7
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 9 History 49 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$476
7 days+$1,466
14 days−$1,250
30 days+$37,372
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No 83¢ 82¢ $17,831 $17,724 −$107 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $10,582 $10,598 +$16 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $6,911 $6,903 −$7 (-0%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No 50¢ 45¢ $5,626 $5,045 −$581 (-10%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 84¢ $4,614 $4,874 +$260 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 72¢ $3,407 $3,430 +$24 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $973 $1,010 +$37 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $112 $126 +$14 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 17¢ 0¢ $520 $0 −$520 (-100%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 13? Up 41¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 60¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? No 18¢ 0¢ $2,669 $0 −$2,669 (-100%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Under 60¢ 0¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15? Up 26¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 8? Up 56¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? No 10¢ 0¢ $6,637 $0 −$6,637 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $700 $0 −$700 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $49,050 +$950 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $4,478 +$226 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $19,703 −$700 -4%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $79 −$78 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $132 +$1,068 +809%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $48 −$48 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $2,821 −$2,669 -95%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $24 −$23 -99%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? May 29 $98,080 +$4,597 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? May 29 $111,251 +$10,063 +9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? May 29 $81,371 +$7,048 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? May 27 $5,672 +$272 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? May 27 $43,434 +$1,107 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $136 +$43 +32%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? May 26 $9,868 +$539 +6%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $520 −$520 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 20 $98,917 +$15,444 +16%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $1,942 +$53 +3%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 14 $2,957 −$681 -23%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May? May 14 $280 −$14 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 13 $20,298 +$7,514 +37%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $2,021 +$74 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 12 $6,742 +$3,463 +51%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 in May? May 12 $211 +$7 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? May 11 $722 +$238 +33%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 11 $9,990 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 10 $87,440 +$6,620 +8%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 8? May 08 $40 −$39 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $1,941 +$59 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 03 $6,647 −$6,637 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Apr 30 $1,276 +$44 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 30 $3,099 +$229 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 28 $4 −$2 -54%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 28 $76,040 +$214,563 +282%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 27 $283,148 +$140,444 +50%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 21 $685 +$156 +23%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 21 $186,190 +$40,387 +22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 19 $25,782 +$126 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 16 $25,569 +$4,458 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 16 $88,989 +$6,321 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 13 $18,796 −$18,796 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 10 $679 +$8 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 10 $749 +$103 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 01 $23,114 +$21,276 +92%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 31 $39,937 +$88,082 +221%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 31 $73 +$39,148 +53524%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March? Mar 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
finance 90% +$585,339
tech 6% +$1,015
crypto 2% −$2,054
other 2% −$813
sports 0% +$511
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $22 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $578 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $58 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $105 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 30h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 95¢ $4,478 42h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 7¢ $455 42h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 7¢ $37 42h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 42h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 42h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 42h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 7¢ $70 42h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 42h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 42h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 42h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 7¢ $42 42h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 7¢ $34 42h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 7¢ $33 42h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 84¢ $19,232 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $112 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $79 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 11¢ $23 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 11¢ $109 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 98¢ $49,050 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 83¢ $11,097 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 83¢ $73 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+73.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +123.2% +102.0% 60% 20% -7.1%
≤30d 18 +16.7% +5.6% 67% 17% -2.9%
≤90d 49 +91.7% +73.5% 67% 33% +25.3%
all 49 +91.7% +73.5% 67% 33% +25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover36.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +73.5% 33% +25.3%
10% +56.9% 24% +13.3%
15% ← realistic here +41.7% 18% +2.4%
20% +27.8% 14% -7.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49,762.21 · official $49,762.21 (match) · 3500 history records