Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:25:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa80e…6aa1 sports 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (118 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$24,299 (+9%) realized +$22,893 · open +$1,406
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$6,081per market
Trades / day117.9pace
Fees−$1,745est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$115,223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$26,779
sports 40% −$17,872
crypto 6% +$5,379
world 2% −$450
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (118 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +3.8% -6.1% 47% 47% -2.7%
≤30d 17 +3.8% -6.1% 47% 47% -2.7%
≤90d 17 +3.8% -6.1% 47% 47% -2.7%
all 17 +3.8% -6.1% 47% 47% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover117.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 47% -2.7%
10% -15.1% 47% -12.0%
15% ← realistic here -23.3% 41% -20.5%
20% -30.8% 35% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$10,180) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8,429 vs −$6,112 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$115,223
Realized+$22,893
Unrealized+$1,406
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1,745
Open positions29
Markets (closed)17 / 46
History coverage4d
Avg bet$6,081
Trades / day117.9
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 52¢ $16,830 $16,995 +$165 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 66¢ $10,314 $10,294 −$20 (-0%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 36¢ 38¢ $9,380 $9,750 +$370 (+4%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 57¢ 55¢ $10,000 $9,501 −$499 (-5%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $6,776 $6,444 −$332 (-5%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 52¢ 52¢ $5,818 $5,764 −$54 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $5,578 $5,436 −$142 (-3%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $4,880 $5,000 +$120 (+2%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 96¢ $4,171 $4,972 +$800 (+19%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 50¢ 46¢ $5,000 $4,550 −$450 (-9%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 60¢ $3,990 $4,235 +$245 (+6%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 42¢ 46¢ $3,696 $4,004 +$308 (+8%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 36¢ $3,800 $3,650 −$150 (-4%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 36¢ 36¢ $3,600 $3,550 −$50 (-1%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 36¢ $3,100 $3,550 +$450 (+15%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Senegal 61¢ 60¢ $3,495 $3,466 −$29 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 40¢ 42¢ $2,462 $2,553 +$91 (+4%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $1,984 $2,075 +$91 (+5%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $2,040 $2,010 −$30 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 51¢ 52¢ $1,711 $1,728 +$17 (+1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 30¢ 30¢ $1,728 $1,699 −$29 (-2%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $1,600 $1,600 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Cabo Verde 61¢ 64¢ $940 $979 +$39 (+4%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 46¢ $430 $455 +$25 (+6%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 56¢ $335 $344 +$9 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $18,789 −$18,570 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,675 −$1,675 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4,250 −$4,250 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $48,313 +$27,435 +57%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $722 +$1,994 +276%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3,552 −$3,500 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12,479 +$5,521 +44%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10,075 −$75 -1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10,180 −$10,180 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $9,148 +$10,852 +119%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $17,520 +$13,480 +77%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5,549 +$1,451 +26%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 13 $2,207 −$2,207 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8,062 −$8,062 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6,486 −$6,486 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,337 +$2,663 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2,661 +$4,039 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $2 28m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $1 28m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $2 28m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $32 28m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $1 36m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $1 36m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $1 36m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $23 36m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $2 39m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $1 39m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $6 39m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $5 42m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $19 42m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $1 42m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $7 46m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $3 46m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $1 46m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $10 52m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $10 53m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $1 53m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $1 53m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $2 53m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $49 53m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $2 53m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $3,016 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $11 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $10 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $3 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $2 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115,223.29 · official $115,223.66 (match) · 487 history records