Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:11:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa811…75b8 weather 269 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$552 (-2%) realized −$589 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate82%216W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$286
14 days−$213
30 days−$420
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$681
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -31.7% -38.2% 61% 28% -43.4%
≤30d 71 -9.2% -17.9% 80% 45% -19.1%
≤90d 264 +0.1% -9.4% 82% 56% -12.3%
all 264 +0.1% -9.4% 82% 56% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 56% -12.3%
10% -18.1% 18% -20.7%
15% -26.0% 7% -28.4%
20% -33.3% 3% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$71 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized−$589
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses216 / 48
Open positions5
Markets (closed)264 / 269
History coverage67d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20? No 84¢ 100¢ $99 $118 +$19 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 20? No 90¢ 100¢ $101 $112 +$11 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 20? No 91¢ 100¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 20? No 92¢ 100¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on June 20? No 84¢ 84¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $27 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? Jun 18 $50 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 6? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 8? Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 16 $50 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $140 +$12 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 15 $25 +$10 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $16 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $27 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $51 +$8 +17%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $7 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 11 $51 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $56 +$14 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $101 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 08 $34 +$14 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 05 $51 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 4? Jun 05 $97 +$11 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $99 +$14 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $13 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $49 +$7 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 3? Jun 03 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 2? Jun 03 $101 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 2? Jun 02 $101 +$13 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 24? Jun 02 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on May 28? May 29 $101 +$12 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 28? May 29 $27 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on May 27? May 28 $41 +$4 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 27? May 28 $31 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 26? May 27 $101 +$8 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 26? May 27 $34 +$3 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 25? May 25 $25 +$4 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 84¢ $4 52m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $101 8h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $9 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 84¢ $100 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 91¢ $50 17h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $27 35h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 89¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $45 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $13 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $37 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $24 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $28 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $50 4d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $26 4d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $23 4d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $41 5d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $50 5d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $50 5d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $20 5d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? BUY No 71¢ $25 5d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $27 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $45 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $19 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.05 · official $315.05 (match) · 1582 history records