Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:42:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa814…c42d world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 281d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$38 (+3%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate51%23W / 22L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$36
politics 15% +$1
other 14% $0
sports 9% $0
culture 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +6.7% -3.5% 33% 33% -10.3%
≤30d 10 -5.7% -14.7% 70% 20% -7.0%
≤90d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 61% 17% -5.5%
all 45 -0.2% -9.7% 51% 9% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 9% -6.9%
10% -18.3% 7% -15.8%
15% -26.2% 2% -23.9%
20% -33.5% 2% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×5.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.41 per $1 lost it wins $8.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

281d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses23 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage281d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $9 +$2 +26%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $62 −$3 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $58 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $60 +$2 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $134 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $89 +$13 +15%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $45 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $34 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $21 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $38 +$21 +56%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $77 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $7 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 21 $27 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $28 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $28 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $28 $0 -0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 17 $1 $0 -13%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 14 $3 $0 +8%
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025? Oct 13 $21 $0 +1%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awar Oct 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 10 $2 $0 -15%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 10 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 19 $2 $0 -4%
Will Marco Enríquez-Ominami win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 18 $1 $0 -20%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Sep 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 17 $1 $0 +27%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 16 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 16 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $61 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $6 5h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $55 5h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 16h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $7 18h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $9 19h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $6 25h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $53 25h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $16 27h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $46 27h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $40 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $19 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $58 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $6 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $2 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $54 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $39 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $21 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $15 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $42 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $2 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $59 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $47 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $7 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $43 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $6 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $21 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $41 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records