Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:48:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa817…95d7 crypto 954 markets active 0h ago coverage 120d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 119d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$211 (-2%) realized −$203 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate42%429W / 590L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$798
7 days−$750
14 days−$701
30 days−$422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$228
weather 45% −$31
sports 4% −$21
other 4% +$87
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 -30.1% -36.7% 20% 20% -47.9%
≤30d 356 -16.2% -24.2% 28% 27% -15.4%
≤90d 356 -16.2% -24.2% 28% 27% -15.4%
all 1019 -16.5% -24.4% 42% 31% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.4% 31% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -31.7% 23% -24.0%
15% -38.3% 19% -31.4%
20% -44.3% 16% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$203
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses429 / 590
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1019 / 954
History coverage120d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 1019 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Yes 55¢ 39¢ $26 $19 −$8 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? Yes 40¢ 44¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 16? Yes 67¢ 67¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 16? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Yes 33¢ 29¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? Yes 29¢ 29¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-28%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 283 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 40-41°F on January Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 40-41°F on January Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 17? Jun 16 $32 −$40 -125%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on Ja Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or below on Febru Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 14? Jun 16 $9 −$11 -117%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 18? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 18? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 10? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 6PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on January 16? Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on February Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 42-43°F on January Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 44-45°F on January 1 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 17? Jun 16 $3 −$8 -223%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -6°C on January 19? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on January Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 40-41°F on January Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 18? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 3? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on February 9? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 22-23°F on Ja Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 19? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 16? Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on Ja Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 52-53°F on January Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -4°C on February 7? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -10°C or below on January 2 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 2? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C or below on January 19? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on January 26? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on January Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 11? Jun 16 $16 −$23 -141%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 12? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -5°C on January 21? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 44-45°F on January Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on February 14? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? SELL Yes 34¢ $9 7m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 55¢ $27 8m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 8m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 8m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 13m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 14m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 15m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 15m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 15m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 19m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 19m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 52m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 67¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 15¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 57¢ $37 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 33¢ $8 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 34¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $12 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.36 · official $70.36 (match) · 3500 history records